That other (silent) coup: Tunisia

What can you tell me about the Coup d'état in Tunisia in 2021?

In July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saïed carried out a coup d'état, dismissing the prime minister and his cabinet, erasing parliamentary immunity, and ruling by decree. Since then, he has consolidated power and faced growing discontent as the economy suffers. Saied has effectively undone a decade's worth of democratic progress, stripping all institutions of their independence and consolidating all power into his own hands.

He has suspended parliament and dismissed the government, which has been branded as a coup d'etat by many, including the parliament speaker and head of the Ennahda Party. Saied's coup appears to have been successful so far, thanks to popular support and military backing, but Tunisia's democracy is still in crisis. The constitutional legitimacy of Saied's moves is unclear, and Tunisia has not yet established a constitutional court to adjudicate such issues.

Accusations of a coup may dissipate if Saied appoints a prime minister who is seen as independent, legitimate, and popular. However, some fear greater government repression lies ahead, and Tunisia's political deadlock is likely to continue.

Please elaborate further on “Since then, he has consolidated power…”

Since the coup d'état in Tunisia in 2021, President Kais Saied has taken several steps to consolidate power. He dissolved parliament in March 2022, extending his power grab and ruling by decree. Saïed has ignored parts of the constitution, and his opponents have called his political changes a coup. He has assumed all executive power, effectively initiating a self-coup.

Saïed has stripped all institutions of their independence and consolidated all power into his own hands, effectively undoing a decade's worth of democratic progress. He has also ordered investigations into parliament members who defied him, accusing them of a failed coup and a conspiracy against state security. Saïed's grip on power remains strong, and any attempt to arrest parliament members who took part in the session would represent a major escalation in the confrontation between the president and his opponents.

What ‘proof’ is there for alleged military backing of his power grab?

There is evidence to suggest that the Tunisian military played a role in supporting President Kais Saied's power grab in 2021. According to an expert Q&A published by POMED, the military obeyed Saied's order to close down parliament. Additionally, a retired officer told Le Monde in August 2021 that the president's power grab "was necessary to save the country" and that the military supported it.

However, the extent of the military's support for Saied's steps to expand his own power is unclear. The United States Congress is currently reviewing the Tunisian military's role in Saied's power grab to determine whether to continue U.S. military assistance. On the other hand, an article in Foreign Policy argues that involving the military in the crisis sets a dangerous precedent and goes against Tunisia's tradition of keeping the military out of politics.

The article also notes that the military's commitment to order leads it to lean toward supporting the status quo, since Saied's moves have brought a degree of stability to the country. While there is evidence to suggest that the military played a role in supporting Saied's power grab, the extent of its involvement and support is still unclear.

How has “Saied has stripped all institutions of their independence …”

Since the coup d'etat in Tunisia in 2021, President Kais Saied has taken several actions to strip institutions of their independence and consolidate power:

1. Dissolving Parliament: In March 2022, Saïed dissolved the country's parliament, extending his power grab. This move allowed him to rule by decree and bypass the legislative branch.
2. Replacing Governors: Saïed has replaced eighteen out of the country's twenty-four governors since the coup. This allows him to exert control over local governance and further centralize power.
3. Shifting Control over Municipal Councils: Saïed dissolved the Ministry of Local Affairs and shifted control over municipal councils to the Ministry of Interior. This rollback of the democratic transition's efforts to devolve power to local actors consolidates power in the hands of the central government.
4. Manipulating or Shutting Down Independent Institutions: Saïed has either manipulated or shut down all independent institutions, except for the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), in his draft constitution. This undermines the checks and balances that are crucial for a functioning democracy.

These actions by Saïed have effectively stripped institutions of their independence and consolidated power into his own hands, eroding the democratic progress that Tunisia had made in the past decade.

And what about the new constitution Kais Saïed imposed?

On July 25, 2022, the Tunisian people voted in a referendum to approve a new constitution proposed by the country's president, Kais Saïed, which alters the country's political structure and changes the governmental balance of powers that were enshrined in the 2014 constitution.

The new constitution has been the object of criticism in Tunisia and abroad, with many expressing their distrust of the new constitution. The new constitution expands presidential powers, giving the president sweeping powers and consolidating all power into his own hands. Saïed's supporters believe that his new constitution will simplify the system of government and diminish the political chaos of the last year. However, critics argue that the new constitution will lead to a dictatorship and further undermine Tunisia's democracy.

Sadok Belaid, a former constitutional law professor who was named by Saïed to lead the committee tasked to draft a "new constitution for a new republic," in May 2022, has stated that Saïed's constitution is different from the draft originally proposed by the committee and that it could lead to a dictatorship.

The new constitution represents a major test for Tunisia's young democracy, and it remains to be seen whether the country will remain the world's only Arab democracy or fall to what political scientists call a "self-coup" or incumbent takeover.

If Sadok Belaid drafted the new constitution, why does he claim that it "..could lead to a dictatorship"

Sadok Belaid has criticized Saied's version of the constitution, saying it could lead to "a disgraceful dictatorial regime" and pave the way for a "disgraceful dictatorship". Belaid submitted his draft of the new constitution to the president in June 2022, but Saied's final version was different and more authoritarian, according to Belaid.

The new constitution expands presidential powers, giving the president sweeping powers and consolidating all power into his own hands. Critics argue that the new constitution will lead to a dictatorship and further undermine Tunisia's democracy. The new constitution represents a major test for Tunisia's young democracy, and it remains to be seen whether the country will remain the world's only Arab democracy or fall to what political scientists call a "self-coup" or incumbent takeover.

What are some of the concerns expressed by opposition parties and civil society groups regarding the new constitution?

Opposition parties and civil society groups have expressed concerns regarding the new constitution proposed by President Kais Saied in Tunisia:

1. Concentration of Power: The new constitution expands presidential powers, giving the president sweeping powers and consolidating all power into his own hands. Critics argue that the new constitution will lead to a dictatorship and further undermine Tunisia's democracy.
2. Weakened Judiciary: The draft constitution does not offer Tunisia's judiciary the necessary safeguards to operate with full independence and impartiality. Amnesty International has stated that the constitution undermines the government's balance of powers and threatens human rights.
3. Lack of Transparency: The new constitution was drafted behind closed doors in a process controlled by Saied. The International Commission of Jurists regional director has called the referendum rigged from the start, with no participation threshold provided for.
4. Low Voter Turnout: The referendum on the new constitution was marred by low voter turnout, with only 30.5% of eligible voters participating. Many of Saied's detractors boycotted the referendum, fearing that concentrating executive, legislative, and judicial powers in the hands of one person is the road back to one-man rule.

The new constitution represents a major test for Tunisia's young democracy, and it remains to be seen whether the country will remain the world's only Arab democracy or fall to what political scientists call a "self-coup" or incumbent takeover.

Has the coup actually improved life for ordinary citizens?

There is no evidence to suggest that the coup d'etat in Tunisia in 2021 has improved life for ordinary citizens. In fact, the opposite appears to be true. President Kais Saied's power grab has crushed Tunisian democracy, returning the country to the old playbook of Arab dictators past and present.

The political situation in Tunisia remains in crisis, and the country's democracy is still in jeopardy. Saied has dissolved parliament, extended his power grab, and ruled by decree. He has stripped all institutions of their independence and consolidated all power into his own hands. Saied's actions have undermined the checks and balances that are crucial for a functioning democracy.

The economic situation in Tunisia has also suffered, with growing discontent as the economy struggles. The failure to accompany political reform with socioeconomic gains for citizens and the subsequent rise of populism are among the reasons for the return of dictatorship in Tunisia. Involving the military in the crisis sets a dangerous precedent and goes against Tunisia's tradition of keeping the military out of politics. In short, the coup d'etat in Tunisia has not improved life for ordinary citizens, politically, economically, or in their freedoms.

Please elaborate on “The economic situation in Tunisia has also suffered…”

The economic situation in Tunisia has suffered following the coup d'etat in 2021, leading to various challenges for ordinary citizens. Here are examples of how the economic downturn has impacted their lives:

1. Food Shortages: Tunisia has experienced food shortages, which have highlighted the country's core economic failings. These shortages have been linked to periods of economic depression, such as the aftermath of the world financial crisis in 2009 and the difficulties faced in 2016 and 2020-21. Rising oil prices have also impacted Tunisia's ability to borrow and shield itself from economic depression. Shortages of goods like sugar and rice have been reported, causing further hardship for Tunisians.
2. Price Increases: Tunisians have faced sharp increases in prices, leading to a decline in living standards. The costs of failure to address economic issues could be catastrophic, resulting in terrible hardship for the population. The economic imbalance, reliance on the state for jobs and subsidized goods, and unsustainable public sector spending have contributed to this situation. Inflation, drought, and the worldwide surge in food prices have further strained the economy.
3. Reduced Choice: The economic challenges have limited the resources available to Tunisia, affecting its ability to provide a range of choices for its citizens. The lack of job opportunities, particularly for university graduates and the prime working-age population, has reduced options for individuals seeking employment. The absence of a robust and well-regulated private sector has also contributed to the limited choices available to Tunisians.

Overall, the economic situation in Tunisia has worsened following the coup, leading to food shortages, price increases, and reduced choices for ordinary citizens. These challenges have had a significant impact on their daily lives and well-being.

What are some of the factors contributing to food shortages in Tunisia

Food shortages in Tunisia are the result of several factors, including:

1. Subsidies: Tunisia began subsidizing staple foods in the 1970s, meeting part of the cost of flour, vegetable oil, and rice among other goods. Over the years, however, the system has grown, increasing the strain on Tunisia's hard-pressed budget. This year, spending on subsidies is expected to make up about 8% of the country's GDP – almost twice the share in 2021.
2. Reliance on Imports: Tunisia is heavily reliant on foreign imports of cereals, especially wheat, to sustain its population. The country only produces 10-30% of its bread flour and is therefore vulnerable to market fluctuations.
3. Economic Depression: There are visible correlations between food shortages and periods of economic depression, such as 2009 following the world financial crisis, 2016, which was a very difficult year economically for Tunisia, and 2020-21 during the pandemic and subsequent slight recovery.
4. Smuggling: Smuggling is another factor contributing to food shortages in Tunisia. The government is struggling to pay for the goods, and they just don't have sufficient funds.
5. Monopolies and Black Market: Tunisia's economy is also affected by monopolies and a black market, which make it difficult for the country to draw funds to run its economy. 

These factors have contributed to food shortages in Tunisia, leading to empty shelves in supermarkets and bakeries, and adding to popular discontent at high prices of many Tunisians who spend hours searching for sugar, milk, butter, cooking oil, and rice. The situation is expected to worsen until there is a serious national dialogue involving all stakeholders, as requested by the IMF.

Has Saied - using his usurped powers - been able to improve the economy and reduce shortages?

There is no evidence to suggest that President Kais Saied's power grab in Tunisia has improved the economy or reduced shortages. In fact, the economic situation in Tunisia has deteriorated sharply over the past ten years, with low growth, rising unemployment, declining public services, and growing deficits and debt. Saied's unilateral political approach could also complicate efforts to unlock further assistance from Western democracies, which have been the most important donors to Tunisia since the 2011 revolution.

While Tunisia has said Gulf states have pledged support, none has emerged so far. Saied's power grab represents a major test for Tunisia's young democracy.

Corruption is widespread in Tunisia, and daily corruption is widespread, even as citizens struggle to make a living. Fighting corruption cannot be done while a head of state operates unilaterally and undermines the independence of his country's institutions. In short, there is no evidence to suggest that Saied's power grab has improved the economy or reduced shortages in Tunisia.