The conflict in Sudan

I am trying to understand the conflict in Sudan. Can you give me an overview of the crisis, its roots, who fights who and what are the reasons. I am talking to a panel of 'experts' - ChatGPT and Google Bard.

To my understanding, following the military coup in 2021, a council composed of generals has been governing Sudan. This council is spearheaded by two key military figures: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander of the armed forces and the de facto leader of the nation, and his second-in-command, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, who leads the RSF.

A surge in violence occurred on April 15, preceded by a period of escalating tension as RSF troops were relocated throughout the country, an act perceived as a potential threat by the army. Although there were aspirations that negotiations might defuse the situation, these talks never materialized. While it remains uncertain who initiated the violence, the clashes quickly intensified and spread across various regions of the country.

[Google Bard] The conflict in Sudan is a complex and ongoing crisis that has its roots in the country's long history of division along ethnic, religious, and political lines. The current conflict is between the Sudanese military (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which was formed in 2013 to fight the Darfur conflict. The reasons for the conflict are complex and multifaceted, but some of the key factors include the 2021 coup d'état that overthrew the civilian-led transitional government, disputes over power and resources, and ethnic and religious tensions.

The 2021 coup led by the SAF and the RSF significantly increased tensions between the two groups. The SAF is the traditional power broker in Sudan, while the RSF is a newer force that has gained power in recent years. These disputes over power and resources have led to widespread suffering and displacement, and they have hampered the country's development. Sudan is a country with a diverse population, and there are long-standing ethnic and religious tensions between different groups. These tensions have often been exploited by political leaders to fuel conflict. It is important to understand the roots of the conflict and the factors that are driving it in order to find a lasting solution.

The conflict in Sudan is a complex and ongoing crisis. It has caused widespread suffering and displacement, and it has hampered the country's development. It is important to understand the roots of the conflict and the factors that are driving it in order to find a lasting solution.

Indeed - I would like to understand the roots of the conflict a bit better.

[ChatGPT] Sudan has been embroiled in a series of interlinked conflicts for many decades. A critical point of conflict has been between the central government, largely controlled by Arab Muslim elites based in Khartoum, and marginalized non-Arab and non-Muslim groups in outlying regions like Darfur, South Sudan, and the Nuba Mountains.

[Google Bard] Sudan has a long and complex history of conflict. The country is divided along ethnic, religious, and political lines, and these divisions have often led to violence. One of the key roots of the conflict is colonial rule. Sudan was ruled by the United Kingdom from 1898 to 1956. During this time, the British government imposed a system of divide and rule, which exacerbated ethnic and religious tensions. This system pitted different groups against each other, making it more difficult for them to unite and challenge British rule.

Another root of the conflict is the 1956 civil war. Sudan's independence in 1956 was followed by a civil war between the northern and southern regions of the country. The war lasted for 17 years and resulted in the deaths of an estimated 500,000 people. The war was fought over a number of issues, including religion, ethnicity, and control of resources.

[ChatGPT] The First Sudanese Civil War (1955-1972 was primarily a conflict between the north and south of Sudan. Southern groups, who felt marginalized by the northern-dominated government, launched a rebellion. This conflict was also influenced by differences in religion (Islam in the North, Christianity and traditional religions in the South) and colonial legacies. Despite a peace agreement after the First Sudanese Civil War, unresolved issues led to a new conflict in 1983. This war, the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005), was even more destructive than the first and eventually led to the creation of South Sudan as an independent country in 2011.

[Google Bard] The Darfur conflict is another key root of the conflict. The Darfur conflict is a complex and ongoing conflict that began in 2003. The conflict is primarily between the Sudanese government and the Darfuri people, who are mostly non-Arab and Muslim. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of an estimated 300,000 people and the displacement of millions more. The Darfur conflict is often seen as a proxy war between the Sudanese government and the government of neighboring Chad.

[ChatGPT] The war in Darfur (2003-Ongoing) began with rebel groups fighting the Sudanese government which they accused of oppressing Sudan's non-Arab population. The government responded to the attacks with a counter-insurgency campaign, which many argue involved ethnic cleansing and genocide of Darfur's non-Arab population. at the same time, after South Sudan's independence, conflict broke out in the South Kordofan and Blue Nile border regions (2011-Ongoing), where many people identify more with the South than the North.

And then there is the Sudanese Revolution (2018-2019): This was a major political shift in Sudan's government, resulting in the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir, who had been in power for 30 years. Despite this change, significant political, economic, and social issues remain.

[Google Bard] The 2019 revolution is the most recent root of the conflict. The 2019 revolution overthrew the authoritarian regime of Omar al-Bashir. The revolution was led by a coalition of civilian and military forces, but it soon became clear that there were deep divisions within the coalition. These divisions led to the 2021 coup, which further destabilized the country.

The 2021 coup in Sudan was a military coup d'état that overthrew the civilian-led transitional government of Sudan. The coup was led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The coup took place on October 25, 2021. Al-Burhan announced that the SAF had dissolved the Sovereignty Council, the transitional government's ruling body, and the government of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. He also imposed a state of emergency and placed Hamdok under house arrest.

[ChatGPT] It's worth noting that the military's role in Sudan's government has been a major source of tension since the 2019 revolution. The transitional government was supposed to be a power-sharing arrangement between civilian and military leaders. However, many civilians and pro-democracy activists have been wary of military involvement in the government, especially given the military's history of autocratic rule and human rights abuses. There have also been allegations of slow progress in key areas of reform, such as justice for past crimes and reining in paramilitary groups and the Rapid Support Forces, which have been accused of serious abuses.

This is a rapidly evolving situation, and the specifics of any post-September 2021 developments are beyond my current knowledge. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, I would recommend checking the latest reports from reliable news sources and international organizations.

[Google Bard] The coup was met with widespread protests and condemnation from the international community. The United Nations, the United States, and the European Union all called for the restoration of the civilian government. Hamdok was released from house arrest on November 21, 2021, but he was placed under close supervision by the military. He resigned as prime minister on January 2, 2022, in protest of the military's continued interference in the government. The coup has further destabilized Sudan, which is already facing a number of challenges, including a severe economic crisis and the ongoing Darfur conflict. The coup has also led to a rise in violence, with protesters being killed and injured by security forces.

OK - That seems indeed a history of strive and conflict. In the current fighting, both of you mentioned the Sudanese military (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Can you explain?

[ChatGPT] Certainly, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have played significant roles in Sudan's contemporary conflicts, though their relationships are often complex due to the intricate socio-political context of Sudan. The SAF is the conventional military establishment of Sudan, historically linked to the government and bearing primary responsibility for the country's external defense. However, in the context of internal conflicts and power struggles, the SAF's role has frequently expanded beyond this traditional scope.

On the other hand, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is a paramilitary organization that originated in 2013, growing out of the notorious Janjaweed militias that were heavily involved in the Darfur conflict. The RSF was established by the Sudanese government as an auxiliary force to counter insurgencies and rebellions, particularly in the peripheral regions like Darfur.

Although they were both part of the security apparatus of the Sudanese state, the SAF and RSF's roles, allegiances, and rivalries have shifted over time, reflecting the wider tensions within Sudan's political and military spheres. The interplay between these forces continues to shape Sudan's ongoing struggles for peace, democracy, and stability.

[Google Bard] The conflict between the SAF and the RSF is rooted in a number of factors, including:

• Power and control: The SAF and the RSF are both vying for power and control in Sudan. The SAF is the traditional power broker in Sudan, but the RSF has gained power in recent years.
• Ethnic and religious tensions: The SAF and the RSF are drawn from different ethnic and religious groups. The SAF is primarily composed of Arab Muslims, while the RSF is more diverse. These ethnic and religious tensions have often been exploited by political leaders to fuel conflict.
• The 2021 coup: The 2021 coup further exacerbated tensions between the SAF and the RSF. The coup was led by the SAF, but the RSF was involved in the planning and execution of the coup.

[ChatGPT] The RSF, under the leadership of Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemeti), has become a highly influential power broker within Sudan. Hemeti has effectively leveraged the RSF's military might and his personal influence to secure a prominent role in the transitional government that was established after Omar al-Bashir's removal from power in 2019. This has led to concerns about the RSF's outsized role in Sudan's political and military landscape, given its record of alleged human rights abuses and its roots in the Janjaweed.

Sudan seems to be a country with a diverse population, and there are long-standing ethnic and religious tensions between different groups. These tensions also seem to be exploited by political leaders to fuel conflict.

[ChatGPT] Sudan is indeed a country of immense diversity, home to hundreds of ethnic groups and numerous religious communities. This diversity, while a source of cultural richness, has also been a site of conflict and tension, especially when manipulated by political actors.

[Google Bard] Sudan is a country with a diverse population, and there are long-standing ethnic and religious tensions between different groups. These tensions have often been exploited by political leaders to fuel conflict. The largest ethnic group in Sudan is Arabs, who make up about 70% of the population. They are predominantly Muslim. The second largest ethnic group is Africans, who make up about 30% of the population. They are predominantly Christian or follow traditional African religions. Other ethnic groups in Sudan include Nubians and Fellahin.

[ChatGPT] It is true that Sudan is broadly divided between Northern Arabs and a multitude of ethnic groups in the South, West (Darfur), and other peripheral regions, but remember that this division is a simplification, as each region is home to a complex tapestry of ethnicities. However, there has historically been significant power imbalance favoring the Northern Arab groups, which has led to marginalization of non-Arab ethnicities. This dynamic has fueled many of Sudan's conflicts, including the civil wars between North and South Sudan, and the ongoing conflict in Darfur.

[Google Bard] The dominant religion in Sudan is Islam, with about 97% of the population identifying as Muslim. Christianity is the second largest religion, with about 3% of the population identifying as Christian. Traditional African religions are practiced by a small minority of the population. 

[ChatGPT] The introduction of Sharia law under President Gaafar Nimeiry in the 1980s sparked the second Sudanese civil war and has been a major point of tension, particularly for non-Muslim communities - Christian and traditional African religious communities, especially in South Sudan and the Nuba Mountains - who felt marginalized and discriminated against. 

Political leaders have often exploited these ethnic and religious differences to maintain or gain power. For instance, President Omar al-Bashir, who ruled Sudan from 1989 to 2019, is known to have used divide-and-rule tactics, favoring certain ethnic groups and pitting them against others, especially during the Darfur conflict. Similarly, the implementation of Sharia law can be seen as a political move to consolidate power among the Muslim majority at the expense of non-Muslim groups.

[Google Bard] The ethnic and religious tensions in Sudan have been exacerbated by a number of factors, including colonial rule, the 1956 civil war, the Darfur conflict, and the 2019 revolution. These tensions have led to widespread violence and instability in Sudan, and they pose a major challenge to the country's stability.

[ChatGPT] It's important to remember that while ethnic and religious differences can be sources of conflict, they are often intertwined with other issues like political power, economic resources, and historical grievances. In the case of Sudan, resolving these complex issues requires comprehensive efforts that address all these interrelated factors..

Furthermore, these tensions have not only fueled conflict but also impeded resolution efforts. Many non-Arab and non-Muslim groups in Sudan feel that the peace processes and power structures do not adequately represent their interests, a sentiment that hinders the achievement of a truly inclusive and sustainable peace.

[Google Bard] It is important to address the ethnic and religious tensions in Sudan in order to find a lasting solution to the conflict in the country. This will require a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the tensions, including historical grievances, power imbalances, and economic disparities. It will also require the cooperation of all stakeholders, including the government, civil society, and the international community.

What does all this mean for the citizens of Sudan?

[ChatGPT] These ongoing conflicts and political instability have profound implications for the people of Sudan. Here's what it means for Sudanese citizens, based on historical context and the situation up until my last update in 2021: [NOTE: ChatGPT has access only to information up until September 2021)

[Google Bard] The ongoing conflict in Sudan has had a devastating impact on the lives of its citizens. Millions of people have been displaced from their homes, and many have been killed or injured. The conflict has also led to a significant economic downturn, which has made it difficult for people to meet their basic needs.

[ChatGPT] Civil conflicts, political violence, and military clashes often lead to a high human cost. This includes loss of life, injuries, sexual violence, and other forms of human rights abuses. People are often displaced from their homes, leading to a refugee crisis both within Sudan (internally displaced persons) and in neighboring countries...

[Google Bard] Millions of people have been displaced from their homes due to the conflict. This has led to a humanitarian crisis, with many people living in overcrowded camps or in makeshift shelters and Thousands of people have been killed or injured in the conflict. This includes civilians, soldiers, and rebels.

[ChatGPT] Economic Consequences: Conflict and political instability are detrimental to the economy. They can disrupt agriculture, trade, and other economic activities, leading to food shortages, inflation, and increased poverty. A weak economy also reduces government resources for public services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure...

[Google Bard] The conflict has had a significant negative impact on the Sudanese economy. This has made it difficult for people to meet their basic needs, such as food, water, and shelter.

The conflict has also had a negative impact on the country's social fabric. Ethnic and religious tensions have been exacerbated, and there is a growing sense of mistrust and fear among the population. This has made it difficult to build a sense of national unity and to address the root causes of the conflict... 

[ChatGPT] Social Disruption: Conflict can tear apart the social fabric of communities, leading to mistrust and animosity between different ethnic and religious groups. It can also disrupt education and other aspects of daily life, impacting future prospects for young people. Political instability and conflicts often affect the provision of essential services like healthcare, education, clean water, and sanitation. Infrastructure can be destroyed, and service delivery disrupted, leading to further hardships for citizens.

Furthermore, the fear and trauma associated with violence and instability can have significant psychological effects on people, especially children.

[Google Bard] The conflict in Sudan has caused widespread displacement. Millions of people have been forced to flee their homes due to the violence. These people are either internally displaced or refugees. Internally displaced people (IDPs) are people who have been forced to flee their homes within their own country. They are often living in camps or in makeshift shelters. They may have lost their homes, their belongings, and their livelihoods.Refugees are people who have been forced to flee their country due to war, violence, or persecution. They have crossed an international border in search of safety. Refugees often live in camps or in urban areas. They may have lost their homes, their belongings, and their families.

The conflict in Sudan has created a humanitarian crisis. Millions of people are in need of food, water, shelter, and medical care. The international community has been providing humanitarian aid to Sudan, but it is not enough. More aid is needed to help the people of Sudan who have been displaced by the conflict.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that there are over 3.5 million displaced people in Sudan. Of these, over 2 million are IDPs and over 1.5 million are refugees. People who are displaced by the conflict in Sudan flee to a variety of places, including:

• Within Sudan: Many people who are displaced by the conflict in Sudan flee to other parts of the country. The most common destinations for internally displaced people (IDPs) are the Darfur region, the Nuba Mountains, and the Blue Nile region.
• To neighbouring countries: Many people who are displaced by the conflict in Sudan flee to neighbouring countries, such as Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. These countries have also been affected by the conflict in Sudan, and they are struggling to cope with the influx of refugees.
• To Europe and North America: Some people who are displaced by the conflict in Sudan flee to Europe and North America. These people often face challenges in their new countries, such as language barriers and discrimination.

The international community has responded to the displacement crisis in Sudan by providing humanitarian aid. The United Nations has been the lead agency in providing humanitarian aid, but other organizations, such as the Red Cross and Oxfam, have also been involved.

What is 'the world' - the international community - doing?

[Google Bard] The international community has been working to address the conflict in Sudan in a number of ways. One way is by imposing sanctions on Sudan. Sanctions are economic penalties that are imposed on a country in an effort to pressure the government to change its behavior. The United States, the European Union, and other countries have imposed sanctions on Sudan in an effort to pressure the government to end the conflict.

Another way that the international community has been working to address the conflict in Sudan is by providing humanitarian aid. Humanitarian aid is food, water, shelter, and other essential services that are provided to people who have been affected by conflict or natural disasters. The United Nations and other international organizations have provided humanitarian aid to Sudan, including food, water, and shelter for the displaced.

The international community has also been mediating peace talks between the Sudanese government and the opposition. Peace talks are negotiations between two or more parties who are in conflict. The goal of peace talks is to reach an agreement that will end the conflict. The United Nations and other countries have been mediating peace talks between the Sudanese government and the opposition.

Finally, the international community has been pressuring the Sudanese government to respect human rights. Human rights are the basic rights and freedoms that all people are entitled to, regardless of their race, religion, gender, or nationality. The international community has been pressuring the Sudanese government to respect human rights, including the rights of women and children.

The international community has made some progress in addressing the conflict in Sudan. However, the conflict remains unresolved, and there is still a long way to go. The Sudanese government has been reluctant to make the necessary concessions to reach a peace agreement. The opposition groups have been unable to unite behind a common agenda. The violence in Sudan has made it difficult to implement any peace agreement that is reached.

Despite these challenges, the international community remains committed to finding a lasting solution to the conflict in Sudan. The international community's efforts are essential to bringing an end to the violence and suffering in Sudan and to building a more peaceful and prosperous future for the country.

Here are some additional details about the international community's efforts to address the conflict in Sudan:

• The United States has been the most active country in terms of imposing sanctions on Sudan and providing humanitarian aid. The United States has also been mediating peace talks between the Sudanese government and the opposition.
• The European Union has also been active in imposing sanctions on Sudan and providing humanitarian aid. The European Union has also been mediating peace talks between the Sudanese government and the opposition.
• The United Nations has been the most active international organization in terms of mediating peace talks between the Sudanese government and the opposition. The United Nations has also provided humanitarian aid to Sudan.
• Other countries, such as Norway, Qatar, and South Africa, have also been involved in mediating peace talks between the Sudanese government and the opposition.

The international community's efforts to address the conflict in Sudan have been met with some challenges. These include:

• The Sudanese government has been reluctant to make the necessary concessions to reach a peace agreement. The government has been accused of human rights abuses, including the use of torture and arbitrary detention.
• The opposition groups have been unable to unite behind a common agenda. The opposition groups have different priorities and goals, which has made it difficult to reach a consensus on a peace agreement.
• The violence in Sudan has made it difficult to implement any peace agreement that is reached. The violence has displaced millions of people and has made it difficult for people to return to their homes.

Despite these challenges, the international community remains committed to finding a lasting solution to the conflict in Sudan. The international community's efforts are essential to bringing an end to the violence and suffering in Sudan and to building a more peaceful and prosperous future for the country.