Sanctions & Interventions ... do they work?

I was - after watching the news- wondering about the effectiveness of sanctions and I turned once again to my preferred panel of 'experts' - ChatGPT and Google Bard. To reverse West African coups d’etat, or bring about change - do you believe sanctions (by regional organisations) work?

[ChatGPT] Sanctions - such as those announced by ECOWAS -  are one of the primary tools used by international bodies to respond to coups d'etat and other similar situations. They are designed to put pressure on the government in question by restricting trade, aid, and other forms of economic engagement. The idea is that by making it difficult for the government to function and maintain popular support, it will be encouraged to change its behaviour or policies.

[Google Bard] Whether sanctions work to reverse West African coups d'état or bring about change is a complex question with no easy answer. There is some evidence to suggest that sanctions can be effective in pressuring coup leaders to step down, but there are also cases where sanctions have had little or no impact. One of the most well-known examples of sanctions being used to reverse a coup is the case of Haiti in 2004. In that case, the United States and other countries imposed sanctions on Haiti after a military coup overthrew the democratically elected government. The sanctions led to a significant decline in the Haitian economy, and eventually the coup leaders were forced to step down.

But, there are also cases where sanctions have had little or no impact on coup leaders. For example, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) imposed sanctions on Mali after a military coup in 2020 and again in 2021. Yet, the coup leaders have so far refused to step down, and the sanctions have had little impact on the situation in Mali.

What makes sanctions work? And what doesn't?

[Google Bard] There are a number of factors that can affect the effectiveness of sanctions in reversing coups d'état. These include the strength of the international consensus behind the sanctions, the size and scope of the sanctions, and the willingness of the coup leaders to comply with the demands of the international community.

In the case of West Africa, there is a growing consensus among regional organizations that coups are unacceptable. However, the strength of this consensus is still relatively weak, and there is no guarantee that all countries in the region will be willing to comply with sanctions.

The size and scope of the sanctions will also be important. If the sanctions are too weak, they are unlikely to have much impact. However, if the sanctions are too harsh, they could backfire and lead to further instability in the region.

[ChatGPT] Whether or not sanctions are effective can depend on various factors. For instance, the effectiveness of sanctions often hinges on the level of international cooperation and enforcement. If some countries continue to engage with the sanctioned country, the intended effect of the sanctions might be undermined. As Google Bard said, In West Africa, in spite of the sanctions to pressure military juntas into handing over power, like in Mali in 2020 ,when the  Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) sanctions have not played a role in a transition to a civilian-led government.

Also, the specific context and characteristics of the targeted country can greatly influence the effectiveness of sanctions. Some governments may be more susceptible to economic pressure than others, depending on factors such as their level of economic development, the structure of their economy, and their political situation.

They can also lead to unintended negative consequences, particularly for the civilian population of the sanctioned country. Sanctions can contribute to economic hardship and instability, which can sometimes exacerbate the very issues they were intended to resolve.

[Google Bard] Ultimately, whether sanctions work to reverse West African coups d'état or bring about change is a question that can only be answered on a case-by-case basis. There is no one-size-fits-all answer, and the effectiveness of sanctions will depend on a number of factors.

[ChatGPT]  While sanctions can be a tool for encouraging political change, their effectiveness is highly context-dependent and they are not always successful. Diplomatic engagements, negotiation, dialogue, and in some cases, the threat or use of force (usually as a last resort), are other tools that the international community can use to respond to coups.

What is your opinion on the declaration of ECOWAS that they might send a military intervention to Niger ?

[Google Bard] The decision of whether or not to send a military intervention to Niger is a difficult one. There are both pros and cons to consider, and the decision will have far-reaching consequences. 

On the one hand, a military intervention could help to restore democracy and stability to Niger. The coup has plunged the country into uncertainty, and a military intervention could help to ensure that the transition back to civilian rule is smooth and orderly. Additionally, a military intervention could help to deter future coups in Niger and other countries in the region.

On the other hand, a military intervention could also have negative consequences. It could lead to violence and instability, and it could also damage Niger's relations with other countries in the region. Additionally, a military intervention could be seen as an infringement on Niger's sovereignty.

Have you seen the joint declaration of Mali and Burkina Faso on a possible (foreign) military intervention in Niger? Burkina Faso and Mali warned Monday that any military intervention in Niger to restore deposed President Mohamed Bazoum would be considered a "declaration of war" against their two countries.

[Google Bard]  Yes, I have seen the joint declaration and I am concerned about the potential for escalation in the region. This is a significant development! The statement by Mali and Burkina Faso is a clear warning to ECOWAS that they will not tolerate any military intervention in Niger. 

The situation in Niger is complex and there are no easy answers. However, I believe that it is important for all parties involved to work to resolve the situation peacefully. A military intervention would be a risky and costly option, and it could have far-reaching consequences for the region.

How credible do you think ECOWAS' threat to intervene militarily is? And which countries would likely participate - if Burkina Faso, Mali and probably Guinea would oppose such intervention and perhaps deny access to or transit through their territory?

[Google Bard]  The credibility of ECOWAS' threat to intervene militarily in Niger is difficult to assess. On the one hand, ECOWAS has a history of sending military interventions to restore democracy in member states. In 2012, for example, ECOWAS sent troops to Mali to help overthrow a military junta. But on the other hand, the situation in Niger is different from the situation in Mali in 2012;  the military junta was widely unpopular, and there was a strong international consensus that it needed to be removed. In Niger, the coup leaders have some support from the population, and there is no clear international consensus on whether or not they should be removed.

Additionally, the joint declaration by Mali and Burkina Faso has made it more difficult for ECOWAS to intervene militarily in Niger. Mali and Burkina Faso have both said that they will oppose any military intervention, and they have threatened to deny ECOWAS access to their territory.

If ECOWAS does decide to intervene militarily in Niger, it is likely that the countries that would participate would be Ghana, Nigeria, and Togo. These countries are all members of ECOWAS and have a strong interest in restoring democracy in Niger.  However, it is also possible that ECOWAS will not be able to intervene militarily in Niger. The opposition of Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as the potential for violence and instability, could make it too difficult for ECOWAS to mount a successful intervention.

Thank you - and we will see what the (near) future brings

Yes, I agree. It will be interesting to see how the situation in Niger develops in the near future. I will be following the situation closely, and I will be happy to discuss it with you again in the future.