MINUSMA is leaving Mali

Good morning... have you heard about the end of the MINUSMA Mission in Mali?

Good morning! Yes, I have heard about the end of the MINUSMA Mission in Mali. The UN Security Council voted unanimously on June 30, 2023 to terminate the mandate of the mission, which had been in place since 2013. The decision came after the Malian government requested that the mission be withdrawn, citing concerns about its effectiveness and the safety of its personnel. The mission was hampered by a number of challenges, including the ongoing conflict in Mali, the presence of armed groups, and the lack of cooperation from the Malian government.

The Malian government has been critical of MINUSMA for some time, arguing that the mission has not been effective in protecting civilians or promoting peace in the country. The government has also accused MINUSMA of being too close to the armed groups that are fighting in Mali.

The government has also accused the mission of being biased against Malian forces and of failing to respect the country's sovereignty and in recent months, the Malian government has become increasingly hostile towards the MINUSMA Mission. In recent months, the government's concerns about MINUSMA's effectiveness and safety have been heightened by a number of incidents, including the killing of two MINUSMA peacekeepers in March 2023. The MINUSMA Mission was one of the deadliest UN peacekeeping missions in history.

In light of these concerns, Mali's Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop requested on June 16, 2023, the UN Security Council to withdraw the MINUSMA Mission "without delay". The government argued that the mission was no longer necessary and that its presence was actually undermining peace and stability in Mali. The Malian government's concerns about the effectiveness and safety of the MINUSMA Mission can be summarised as:

• ... the mission has not been effective in protecting civilians from attacks by armed groups.
• ...  the mission has failed failing to prevent the spread of terrorism in Mali.
• ... concern about the safety of its personnel, who have been killed and wounded in numerous attacks by armed groups.

The request was made on 16 June and already on 30 June the UN Security Council accepted the request. That seems very fast. 

Yes, it does seem very fast. The UN Security Council usually takes more time to consider requests to withdraw peacekeeping missions. However, in this case, the Council may have been eager to respond to the Malian government's request in order to avoid further tensions between the government and the mission.

Hadn't other international (military) assistance missions left Mali before that? And didn't some countries already withdraw their troops from MINUSMA?

Yes, that's correct. Other international military assistance missions had already left Mali before the MINUSMA Mission was withdrawn. In 2020, France announced that it would be withdrawing its troops from Operation Barkhane, a regional counter-terrorism force that had been operating in Mali since 2013. The European Union also withdrew - or rather, "suspended" its training mission, EUTM, in Mali in 2022: The EU will leave its military training mission in Mali suspended, but will not terminate it for the time being, the bloc’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said on 17 may 2022: “We decided to reaffirm our decision of suspending operational training …, but we are not canceling this mission,” the European Union’s foreign policy chief said after a meeting of the EU’s defence ministers.

On 11 November 2022, Côte d’Ivoire informed the UN that it will start withdrawing its 900 soldiers from the mission and less than a week later, the UK announced that its troops will pull out in the next six month. Germany had announced it would contribute troops only until 2024 - and has now advanced that timeline.

At the same time, Mali and the Russian Federation have signed a number of cooperation agreements, including agreements on security, military training, and economic development. These agreements have been controversial, with some critics arguing that they are a sign of Mali's increasing dependence on Russia.

In 2019, the Malian government signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia. The agreement allows Russian military instructors to train Malian forces, and it also provides for the sale of Russian weapons to Mali. The agreement has been criticized by some who argue that it will make Mali more dependent on Russia and that it could lead to the militarization of the Malian government.

In 2022, the Malian government signed a second cooperation agreement with Russia. This agreement covers a wider range of issues, including security, military training, economic development, and culture. The agreement has been criticized by some who argue that it is too broad and that it gives Russia too much influence in Mali.

The cooperation agreements between Mali and Russia are a sign of the growing ties between the two countries. However, these agreements have also been controversial, and it is unclear what the long-term impact of these agreements will be on Mali.

It is important to note that the Malian government has defended the cooperation agreements with Russia, arguing that they are necessary to address the security challenges facing the country. The government has also said that the agreements do not give Russia any special privileges in Mali.

And what about the elephant in the room, the (alleged) presence of the Wagner group in Mali?

It is important to note that the Malian government has denied that the Wagner Group is operating in the country. However, there is strong evidence to suggest that the group is present. The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company that is said to be operating in Mali since 2021. The group is reportedly providing security for the Malian government and its allies,

The presence of the Wagner Group in Mali has been controversial. Some critics argue that the group is a destabilizing force in the country, and that it could undermine the efforts of other international actors to promote peace and stability. Others argue that the group is necessary to address the security challenges facing Mali, and that it is providing valuable support to the Malian government.

In 2022, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group, citing its involvement in human rights abuses in Mali and it has been accused of human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings and torture, and it is unclear how long the Malian government will be able to tolerate its presence. However, the group is likely to remain a factor in Mali's security landscape for the foreseeable future.

Here are some of the concerns that have been raised about the Wagner Group in Mali:

• The group is a destabilizing force in the country.
• The group could undermine the efforts of other international actors to promote peace and stability.
• The group is involved in human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings and torture.

Did Russia or the Wagner Group have a hand in the request for MINUSMA's withdrawal?

There is no consensus on whether Russia or the Wagner Group had a hand in the request for MINUSMA's withdrawal. However, there are some indications that they may have played a role.

For example, the Malian government's request for the withdrawal of MINUSMA came just days after the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group. The sanctions were imposed in response to the group's involvement in human rights abuses in Mali. In addition, the Malian government has close ties to Russia. The two countries have signed a number of cooperation agreements in recent years, including agreements on security and military training and it is possible that the Malian government requested the withdrawal of MINUSMA in order to pave the way for a greater Russian military presence in the country.

It is important to note that these are just indications, and there is no concrete evidence that Russia or the Wagner Group were directly involved in the request for MINUSMA's withdrawal. However, the evidence does suggest that they may have played a role but only time will tell what role Russia or the Wagner Group played in the request for MINUSMA's withdrawal.

Has the recent conflict between the Kremlin and the Wagner group (over operations in Ukraine) had an impact on Mali?

It is still too early to say for sure how the conflict between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group over operations in Ukraine will impact Mali. However, there are some potential implications that could be considered. One possibility is that the conflict could lead to a decrease in Russian military support for the Malian government if the latter is seen as being closer to the Wagner Group than to the Russian government as the Kremlin may be reluctant to provide support to partners of the Wagner Group.

Another possibility is that the conflict could lead to an increase in instability in Mali and the conflict between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group could lead to an increase in instability in the country, as armed groups could take advantage of the situation. It is also possible that the conflict could have no significant impact on Mali.

However, it is important to monitor the situation closely, as the conflict could have a significant impact on the country in the future.

What are the implications of the withdrawal of MINUSMA for the broader UN effort in Mali - and especially for the humanitarian mission of the various UN Agencies in the country?

The withdrawal of MINUSMA has a number of implications for the broader UN effort in Mali, and especially for the humanitarian mission of the various UN agencies in the country. It is important to note that these are just some of the potential implications of the withdrawal of MINUSMA for the broader UN effort in Mali, and especially for the humanitarian mission of the various UN agencies in the country. The actual impact of the withdrawal will depend on a number of factors, including the actions of the Malian government and armed groups, and the level of international support for Mali.

• Increased risk of violence and instability. The withdrawal of MINUSMA will likely lead to an increase in violence and instability in Mali. MINUSMA has played a significant role in deterring violence and protecting civilians. Without MINUSMA, there is a risk that armed groups will become more emboldened and that the security situation will deteriorate.
• Decreased humanitarian assistance. The withdrawal of MINUSMA will also likely lead to a decrease in humanitarian assistance. MINUSMA has provided logistical support to humanitarian agencies and has helped to protect civilians in need of assistance. Without MINUSMA, it will be more difficult for humanitarian agencies to operate in Mali.
• Increased risk of human rights abuses. The withdrawal of MINUSMA will also likely lead to an increased risk of human rights abuses. MINUSMA has helped to monitor and investigate human rights abuses in Mali. Without MINUSMA, it will be more difficult to track and prevent human rights abuses.
• Challenges to the peace process. The withdrawal of MINUSMA will also pose challenges to the peace process in Mali. MINUSMA has helped to support the peace process by facilitating dialogue between the Malian government and armed groups. Without MINUSMA, it will be more difficult to maintain momentum in the peace process.

The UN agencies will need to find ways to adapt to the new security situation and to ensure that they can continue to provide assistance to those in need.

Can you make short- mid and long-term predictions about the consequences of the withdrawal of MINUSMA?

Sure. Here are some short-, mid-, and long-term predictions about the consequences :

Short-term consequences

• Increased violence and instability. The withdrawal of MINUSMA is likely to lead to an immediate increase in violence and instability in Mali. Armed groups are likely to take advantage of the vacuum created by the withdrawal to launch attacks. This could lead to a significant increase in civilian casualties and a deterioration of the security situation.
• Decreased humanitarian assistance. The withdrawal of MINUSMA is also likely to lead to a decrease in humanitarian assistance. MINUSMA has provided logistical support to humanitarian agencies and has helped to protect civilians in need of assistance. Without MINUSMA, it will be more difficult for humanitarian agencies to operate in Mali. This could lead to a decrease in the provision of food, water, shelter, and medical care to those in need.
• Increased risk of human rights abuses. The withdrawal of MINUSMA is also likely to lead to an increased risk of human rights abuses. MINUSMA has helped to monitor and investigate human rights abuses in Mali. Without MINUSMA, it will be more difficult to track and prevent human rights abuses. This could lead to an increase in the number of arbitrary arrests, detentions, and torture cases.

Mid-term consequences

• Collapse of the peace process. The withdrawal of MINUSMA is likely to pose challenges to the peace process in Mali. MINUSMA has helped to support the peace process by facilitating dialogue between the Malian government and armed groups. Without MINUSMA, it will be more difficult to maintain momentum in the peace process. This could lead to the collapse of the peace process and an increase in violence.
• Withdrawal of all forms of foreign assistance and interventions. The withdrawal of MINUSMA, such as the United States, have said that they are less likely to intervene in Mali without the support of MINUSMA. Other countries, like the Russian Federation, could increase their assistance and thius their political clout. This could lead to a situation where Mali is even more the subject of different foreign power plays, each with its own interests.

Long-term consequences

• Continued deterioration of the security situation. The withdrawal of MINUSMA is likely to lead to a long-term deterioration of the security situation in Mali. This could lead to the rise of new armed groups, the spread of terrorism, and the displacement of civilians. This could have a significant impact on the stability of Mali and the region.
• Increased poverty and inequality. The withdrawal of MINUSMA is also likely to lead to increased poverty and inequality in Mali. This is because the withdrawal will make it more difficult to provide economic assistance to those in need. This could lead to social unrest and instability.

It is important to note that these are just some of the potential consequences of the withdrawal of MINUSMA. The actual impact of the withdrawal will depend on a number of factors, including the actions of the Malian government and armed groups, and the level of international support for Mali.

These are (very) bleak predictions ...

Yes, they are. The withdrawal of MINUSMA is a significant development that could have a major impact on Mali. The potential consequences of the withdrawal are bleak, and it is important to be aware of the risks involved. However, it is also important to remember that these are just predictions. The actual impact of the withdrawal will depend on a number of factors, and it is possible that the situation in Mali will not deteriorate as severely as predicted.

It is also important to note that there are a number of people and organizations working to promote peace and stability in Mali. These organizations include the Malian government, the UN, and a number of non-governmental organizations. It is possible that these organizations will be able to mitigate the negative consequences of the withdrawal of MINUSMA.

Only time will tell what the long-term impact of the withdrawal of MINUSMA will be. However, it is clear that the situation in Mali is fragile, and the withdrawal of MINUSMA is a major risk factor. It is important to continue to monitor the situation closely and to provide support to those who are working to promote peace and stability in Mali.

Thank you for your time and insights, BARD.

You're welcome. I'm glad I could be of assistance. I hope that the information I provided was helpful. If you have any other questions, please feel free to ask. I am still under development, and I am always learning. If you have any feedback on how I can improve, please let me know.