A wave of coups d’état in West Africa ...

Good morning - I am trying to understand the the wave of coups d'état in West Africa in the last years and I turned once again to my preferred panel of 'experts' - ChatGPT and Google Bard.

[Google Bard] Since 2020, there have been five successful military coups in West Africa: in Mali (August 2020 and May 2021), Guinea (September 2021), and Burkina Faso (January and September 2022). In the same period, there have also been several foiled coup attempts in the region.

[ChatGPT] In August 2020, there was a coup in Mali led by the military, resulting in the ousting of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. The military dissolved the government and established the National Committee for the Salvation of the People to govern the country.  As a result, a transitional government was established, with Assimi Goïta assuming the position of Vice President of the transitional government. Bah N'Daw, a retired colonel, was appointed as the interim president to lead the country through an 18-month transition to civilian rule but he was overthrown in a second coup in May 2021. The current president is Colonel Assimi Goïta.

[Google Bard] In September 2021, a group of soldiers led by Mamady Doumbouya overthrew President Alpha Condé in a coup in Guinee. Doumbouya was appointed interim president, and he has promised to hold elections in 2023. A few months later, in January 2022, in Burkina Faso, a group of soldiers led by Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba overthrew President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. Damiba was appointed interim president, and he has promised to hold elections in 2024. In a second coup in September 2022, Damiba was was removed in a coup d'état, by his own military colleague Ibrahim Traoré.

A latest coup took place in Niger on July 26, 2023, when a group of soldiers from Niger's presidential guard deposed President Mohamed Bazoum and closed the country's borders.  The coup leaders, who are members of the Groupement des Forces Armées du Niger (GFAN), announced that they had taken control of the country and that they would be forming a new government.  The coup was reportedly sparked by a disagreement between the president and the military over the handling of the country's security crisis. Niger has been facing a growing threat from armed groups and terrorist organizations, and the military has been increasingly critical of the government's response.

...coups are a serious setback for democracy and the rule of law in West Africa.

UN Secretary-General, António Guterres

That's a lot to take in ...  let's start perhaps with the  reasons for these coups d'état.

[Google Bard] The reasons for the coups in West Africa are complex and multifaceted, but some of the most common factors include:

• The rise of armed groups and terrorist organizations: In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the number of armed groups and terrorist organizations operating in West Africa. These groups have posed a serious threat to the security of the region, and they have also contributed to the instability that has led to coups. For example, in Mali, the rise of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) has led to a significant increase in violence and insecurity. This has created a sense of crisis among the population, and it has made it more difficult for the government to maintain control.
• The failure of elected governments: In many cases, the elected governments in West Africa have been seen as corrupt and ineffective. This has led to widespread dissatisfaction with the political process, and it has created an environment in which coups are more likely to occur. For example, in Guinea, President Alpha Condé was widely seen as corrupt and authoritarian. His decision to extend his term in office in 2020 sparked widespread protests, which eventually led to the coup.
• The influence of the military: The military has traditionally played a strong role in West African politics. In some cases, the military has intervened to overthrow elected governments in order to protect its own interests. For example, in Chad, President Idriss Déby Itno was a former military officer who came to power in a coup in 1990. His son, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, was appointed interim president after his father's death in 2021.

[ChatGPT] The coup in Mali in 2020 was a response to a confluence of long-standing political, economic, and security challenges that had been simmering in the country for years. One of the central reasons behind the coup was the widespread public dissatisfaction with President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta's government. Many Malians were frustrated with issues such as corruption, economic hardship, and perceived government inefficiency in addressing the country's problems. The tipping point for the coup came amid mounting public protests, known as the "M5-RFP" movement, which demanded President Keïta's resignation. The protests united various segments of society, including opposition parties, civil society groups, and religious leaders, who accused the government of mismanagement and corruption.

Another significant factor contributing to the coup was the deteriorating security situation in Mali. The country had been grappling with an ongoing insurgency, particularly in the north and central regions, where various jihadist groups were carrying out attacks and sowing instability.

[Google Bard] In addition to these common factors, there are also some similarities and differences between the coups in West Africa. For example, all of the coups have been led by members of the military, and all of the coups have occurred in countries that are facing significant security challenges. However, there are also some important differences between the coups. For example, the coup in Mali was initially justified by the need to address the security threat posed by the ISGS, while the coup in Guinea was more explicitly motivated by a desire to remove a corrupt and authoritarian leader.

[ChatGPT] The coup attempt in Guinea in 2021 was a response to the political climate and perceived grievances within the country. President Alpha Condé had been in power for over a decade, and his government faced criticism for various issues, including allegations of authoritarianism, human rights abuses, and corruption. Tensions escalated when President Condé amended the constitution in 2020 to extend presidential term limits, allowing him to run for a third term. This move was met with significant opposition, leading to widespread protests and international criticism.

The coups in Mali and Guinea share some similarities, but they also have significant differences. Similarities include public dissatisfaction in both countries, there was widespread public dissatisfaction with the incumbent governments. Citizens expressed frustration with issues like corruption, economic hardships, and perceived government inefficiency but the difference lies mostly in the triggering events. In Mali, the coup in 2020 was a culmination of long-standing political, economic, and security challenges, exacerbated by the "M5-RFP" protests. In Guinea, the coup attempt in 2021 was a response to President Condé's controversial decision to extend term limits, sparking protests and opposition.

[Google Bard] Both Burkina Faso and Chad were/are facing significant security challenges posed by armed groups and terrorist organizations. In Burkina Faso, the country has been struggling to contain the spread of the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). In Chad, the country has been fighting a long-running insurgency - at the same time, as in the other countries,  Burkina Faso and Chad have been ruled by governments that have been seen as corrupt and ineffective. In Burkina Faso, President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré was widely criticized for his handling of the security crisis. In Chad, President Idriss Déby Itno was accused of rigging elections and suppressing dissent.

OK, that is a bit clearer - but overall, what are the factors that contribute to (political) instability in West Africa?

[ChatGPT & Google Bard] Political instability in West Africa can be influenced by a combination of complex and interconnected factors. While each country's situation is unique, some common factors that contribute to political instability in the region include:

1. Governance Challenges: Weak governance, characterized by inadequate rule of law, lack of accountability, and corruption, is a common challenge in many West African countries. When governments fail to deliver public services effectively, mismanage resources, and allow corruption to flourish, it erodes public trust in state institutions. The perception that leaders prioritize their own interests over those of the citizens can lead to discontent and a loss of confidence in the government's ability to address the country's problems.
2. Ethnic and Religious Divisions: West Africa is home to a diverse array of ethnic and religious groups, each with its own cultural heritage and interests. Political leaders sometimes exploit these divisions for their own gain, exacerbating tensions between communities. This manipulation can lead to social unrest, communal violence, and in some cases, armed conflicts. In countries where political power is concentrated within a specific ethnic or religious group, marginalized communities may feel excluded from the decision-making process, deepening feelings of injustice and marginalization.
3. Economic Issues: Persistent poverty, high unemployment rates, and economic inequality are major contributors to political instability. When a significant portion of the population struggles to meet their basic needs, frustrations can build up, leading to protests and social unrest. The inability of governments to address economic challenges can be perceived as a failure of leadership, further eroding public trust.
4. Human Rights Abuses: Governments that violate human rights, including instances of police brutality, extrajudicial killings, and suppression of dissent, create an atmosphere of fear and intimidation. These actions can provoke anger and resentment among citizens and contribute to social unrest.
5. Armed Conflicts and Insurgencies: The presence of armed groups and insurgencies in some West African countries poses a significant challenge to political stability. Conflicts disrupt governance and state authority, create insecurity, displace communities, and hinder economic development. The spread of violence across borders can also exacerbate regional tensions and instability.
6. Interstate Conflicts: Border disputes and geopolitical rivalries between neighboring countries can escalate into conflicts and create regional instability. Competing interests over resources, strategic locations, and historical grievances can lead to tensions and armed confrontations.
7. Democratic Deficits: Weak democratic institutions, flawed electoral processes, and allegations of electoral fraud undermine the legitimacy of governments. When citizens believe that their votes do not count and that democratic processes are manipulated, it can lead to public discontent and protests.
8. Youth Discontent: West Africa has a large youth population, and providing opportunities for education, employment, and political participation is crucial for ensuring their engagement and preventing social unrest. High youth unemployment rates and limited access to quality education can lead to frustration and disillusionment with the government.
9. External Influences: West Africa's strategic location and valuable resources make it susceptible to external interests and interference. Foreign powers seeking to advance their political or economic agendas in the region can exacerbate internal tensions and conflicts.
10. Natural Resource Management: Mismanagement of natural resources, such as oil, minerals, and land, can lead to grievances and conflicts over resource distribution and control. Competition for resource wealth can exacerbate existing tensions and contribute to political instability.
11. Climate Change and Environmental Issues: The region's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, including droughts, floods, and desertification, poses significant challenges. Climate-related disasters can strain resources, exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, and trigger social tensions over access to scarce resources.
12. Coup Culture: The history of coups and attempted coups in some West African countries has created a perception of instability and uncertainty. Frequent changes in leadership through non-democratic means can undermine confidence in democratic institutions and hinder the development of stable governance.

What are the three main consequences of these coups d'état for the citizens of these countries? 

[Google Bard] The three main consequences of coups d'état for the citizens of these countries can be sumarised as: 

1. Instability and uncertainty: Coups d'état create a climate of instability and uncertainty, which can make it difficult to plan for the future. This can have a negative impact on economic development, as businesses may be reluctant to invest in countries where there is a risk of political instability. Coups can also lead to social unrest and violence, which can further destabilize the country.
2. Violations of human rights: Coups d'état often lead to violations of human rights, such as arbitrary detention, torture, and extrajudicial killings. This is because the military often takes control of the government and suspends civil liberties. In some cases, the new government may be even more repressive than the previous one.
3. Loss of faith in democracy: Coups d'état can erode public trust in democracy and the rule of law. This is because they show that the military is willing to overthrow the government by force, and that the constitution is not a guarantee of stability. This can make it difficult to hold free and fair elections in the future, and it can also lead to a cycle of violence and instability.

In addition to these three main consequences, coups d'état can also have a number of other negative effects on the citizens of these countries, such as increased poverty, food insecurity, and access to healthcare. It is important to remember that coups d'état are not a solution to the problems facing these countries, and they often make the situation worse.

[ChatGPT] Overall, coups d'état have severe and far-reaching implications for the citizens of affected countries. They can undermine socio-economic progress, human rights, and democratic aspirations, leading to prolonged periods of uncertainty and suffering. It is essential for national and international stakeholders to work toward promoting peaceful and democratic solutions to political challenges to safeguard the well-being and future prospects of the citizens.

These consequences resemble to a great extent the causes you have earlier elaborated on ...

[Google Bard] Yes, that is a very astute observation. The consequences of coups d'état often resemble the causes that led to them in the first place. For example, if a coup is caused by economic instability, then the consequences of the coup may include further economic instability, which can lead to more social unrest and violence. Similarly, if a coup is caused by a lack of trust in democracy, then the consequences of the coup may include a further erosion of trust in democracy, which can make it more difficult to hold free and fair elections in the future.

[ChatGPT] There is a strong interconnection between the causes and consequences of coups d'état in West Africa. Many of the factors that contribute to political instability, as outlined earlier, can also be seen as the consequences that arise from coups d'état. This relationship illustrates the complex and cyclical nature of political instability in the region. 

The causes and consequences of coups d'état are deeply intertwined, forming a vicious cycle that can be challenging to break. Addressing political instability in West Africa requires addressing the root causes while also acknowledging the long-term consequences of coups and working towards promoting peaceful and democratic solutions to political challenges.

What have been the international reactions to these coups?

[Google Bard] The international reactions to the coups in West Africa have been largely negative. The United Nations, the African Union, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have all condemned the coups and called for the restoration of constitutional order. The United Nations Security Council has also condemned the coups and called on the military to respect the democratic process. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has said that the coups are "a serious setback for democracy and the rule of law in West Africa." 

[ChatGPT]  As a general trend, coups d'état are almost universally condemned by the international community. Regional organizations like the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have been particularly vocal in denouncing coup attempts and calling for a return to constitutional order. In response to coups, these organizations have imposed diplomatic isolation on the coup leaders and the newly established governments. This often includes suspending the country's membership in the regional organization until democratic governance is restored.

[Google Bard] The African Union has suspended Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso from the organization until they return to constitutional rule. ECOWAS had also imposed sanctions on Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso, including travel bans and asset freezes. The United States and the European Union have also condemned the coups and called for the restoration of constitutional order. The US State Department has said that the coups are "a threat to democracy and stability in West Africa.".

[ChatGPT] In addition to diplomatic isolation, international sanctions have been imposed on countries that have experienced coups. Economic sanctions included freezing the assets of coup leaders, travel bans, and restrictions on financial transactions. Additionally, foreign aid and development assistance have been suspended or cut off as a response to the breakdown of constitutional order.

Furthermore, international actors, including neighbouring countries, regional bodies, and global powers, have engaged in mediation efforts to try to resolve the political crisis and facilitate a return to democratic governance and one of the primary demands of the international community in response to coups was the swift restoration of democracy through free and fair elections. International actors have urged the establishment of a transitional government that will lead the country back to democratic governance within a specific time frame. They also called for respect for human rights and civil liberties during the transition period.

[Google Bard] ECOWAS has been at the forefront of these efforts and has appointed special envoys to Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso to mediate between the military and the civilian leaders. ECOWAS has also called for the immediate restoration of constitutional order in all three countries. The United Nations has also been involved in mediation efforts. The UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, has appointed a special envoy to the Sahel region to help facilitate dialogue between the military and the civilian leaders.

In addition to mediation efforts, there have also been calls for elections and democracy restoration in West Africa. The African Union has called for elections to be held in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso as soon as possible. The US State Department has also called for the restoration of democracy in the three countries.

It is important to note that the mediation efforts and calls for elections and democracy restoration have not yet been successful. The military in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso has so far resisted the pressure from the international community.

[Google Bard] The international community has also expressed concern about the impact of the coups on the fight against terrorism in West Africa. The Sahel region of West Africa has been a major battleground for terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The coups have raised concerns that the terrorist groups will be able to exploit the instability to gain a foothold in the region.

What would be the way forward from here... and would you venture a time frame?

[ChatGPT] The way forward from political instability and coups d'état in West Africa involves a multi-faceted approach that addresses both the immediate challenges and the underlying root causes. While it is challenging to provide a specific timeframe, sustained efforts over the long term will be necessary to achieve meaningful and lasting change.

[Google Bard] The way forward from here is for the international community to continue to apply pressure on the military in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso to restore constitutional order. The international community should also continue to support mediation efforts and calls for elections and democracy restoration. It is difficult to say how long it will take to restore democracy in West Africa. The military may be able to resist the pressure from the international community for some time. However, the international community is committed to restoring democracy, and it is likely that the pressure will eventually be successful.

It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to the problem of restoring democracy in West Africa. The situation in each country is different, and the international community will need to tailor its approach to each country. However, the steps outlined hereafter could provide a general framework for how the international community can help to restore democracy in West Africa.

Here are some key steps that can be taken:

1. [ChatGPT] National Reconciliation and Inclusive Dialogue: Countries affected by coups need to engage in genuine national reconciliation processes that bring together all segments of society, including political leaders, civil society representatives, ethnic and religious groups, and youth representatives. Inclusive dialogue can help address grievances, heal divisions, and build consensus on the way forward.
2. [ChatGPT] Strengthening Democratic Institutions: Efforts should be made to strengthen democratic institutions and reinforce the rule of law. This includes ensuring free and fair elections, promoting independent and impartial judiciaries, and establishing strong oversight mechanisms to hold leaders accountable. [Google Bard] The international community should (continue to) call for elections to be held in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso as soon as possible. The international community should also provide support for the elections, such as providing financial and logistical support. At the same time, the international community should support democratic institutions in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso. This includes supporting the judiciary, the legislature, and the media.
3. [ChatGPT] Socio-Economic Development: Addressing economic inequalities, reducing poverty, and promoting job opportunities are crucial in preventing the disenfranchisement that can contribute to political instability. Investment in education, healthcare, and infrastructure can contribute to more equitable and sustainable development. [Google Bard] The international community should help countries address the root causes of instability, including addressing poverty, corruption, and inequality.
4. [ChatGPT] Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding: Countries grappling with armed conflicts and insurgencies need comprehensive peacebuilding efforts that address the root causes of violence. This involves disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programs, as well as efforts to promote dialogue and mediation between conflicting parties  and there is a specif role for regional organizations like ECOWAS and the AU play a crucial role in fostering regional stability and democratic governance. Strengthening regional cooperation and collaboration on security, economic development, and conflict resolution can help prevent and address coups d'état.  [Google Bard]  At the same time, the international community should continue to condemn the coups and call for the restoration of constitutional order. The international community should also impose sanctions on the military and its leaders while not retreating from support to mediation efforts between the military and the civilian leaders, including through financial and logistical support to the mediation efforts.
5. [ChatGPT] Good Governance and Anti-Corruption Measures: Promoting transparency, accountability, and good governance practices are essential in building citizens' trust in their governments. Implementing anti-corruption measures and ensuring that public resources are used for the benefit of all citizens can help address a significant driver of political discontent.

Empowering youth and civil society organizations is crucial in promoting civic engagement and democratic participation through youth-focused programs that provide education, skills training, and opportunities for meaningful political participation can help channel energy toward constructive pathways.

While there is no fixed time frame for achieving stability and overcoming the consequences of coups, sustained commitment to these strategies can lead to significant progress over the long term. Political transitions and societal transformations take time, and the challenges facing West Africa are complex and multifaceted. It is important to recognize that each country's situation is unique, and the pace of progress will vary accordingly.

The international community should continue to provide support and assistance to countries facing political instability. This includes diplomatic engagement, technical assistance, capacity-building, and development aid focused on strengthening governance, institutions, and conflict resolution mechanisms.  

International and regional support will be critical in helping countries affected by coups navigate their path towards stability and democracy. The commitment of both national and international actors to these efforts will be instrumental in shaping a more peaceful and prosperous future for the citizens of West Africa.

Thank you for all your explanations

[Google Bard] You're welcome! I'm glad I could be of help. I'm always happy to discuss these topics and share my knowledge. If you have any other questions, please don't hesitate to ask.

[ChatGPT] You're welcome! I'm glad I could assist you and provide explanations on various topics. If you have any more questions or need further clarification in the future, feel free to reach out. Have a great day!